It ain't over till it's over

So political power/reality triumphed at COP15.

Obama probably tried his best but couldn't bring anything new to the negotiations without the backing of the Congress. China has its own reasons for not wanting to commit to a legally-binding reduction target. So do the EU for waiting for the others to step up before they would increase their reduction pledge from 20 to 30% at COP15. As for Canada, Australia, Japan, and Russia, I could not find any excuses for their dismal performance at the talks. Maybe their supporters could help explain here...

One could therefore argue that the US, EU, and BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) did what was the most politically viable in their position - to produce a Copenhagen Accord at the last moments of COP15. Well, at least then they have something to show to the world.

I was surprised when I find out President Nasheed from the Maldives supported the weak accord. He has been pushing for strong targets: 350ppm and limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius below industrial level, and has previously declared the Maldives will not sign a suicide pact in Copenhagen. But I guess he understood the political reality and decided to accept it, for now.

Some argue that it was better to have no deal coming out of COP15 at all than to have the terribly unambitious and vague Copenhagen Accord. That was how I felt originally too. I was really disappointed by the outcome. You can call me naive, but I sincerely believe that civil societies exerted enough pressure on the political leaders. I sincerely believe the 120 leaders who came to COP15 wanted to solve the climate crisis.

After all, the organisers and participants of 5,200 events held on 24 Oct 09, and over 3,000 vigils on 12 Dec 09; and 100,000 demonstrators on the streets of Copenhagen on 12 Dec 09; and millions of people who signed the TckTckTck, Avaaz and many more petitions...They have all been consistently calling for the same thing: A fair, ambitious, and legally-binding deal at COP15. A real deal that would save lives.

Obviously, that wasn't enough for our political leaders.

In the end, the right of small island nations to survival is negotiable. The lives of people already affected by the deadly impacts of climate change proved less valuable than those still living a relatively comfortable life free from climate change impacts. Obviously, your life is more valuable if you come from the US or Australia than from Bangladesh or Tuvalu. Status quo was reinforced. Power triumphed over equity and justice, for now.

And while we bicker and fight, the window to prevent catastrophic climate change grew ever smaller. Science demands that global emissions must peak by 2015-2020 and start to drop immediately after that. We also need to return the carbon concentration in the atmosphere back to 350ppm, but with what's on the table now, we're heading towards 770ppm. Byebye to small island nations and hello to more climate catastrophes, deaths, hunger, and wars.

But is this the end of the world? Far from it. Yes, the window grew smaller, but it is not closed yet. The people have awaken. We will continue to pressure our political leaders and corporates to do their bit while the climate movement grows ever larger and stronger. COP15 has ended but our work is far from done. I guess we all knew that for the start: once you're in the movement, you're in it for life.

We will turn the tide, because we have to.